Punjab government estimates 760,800 coronavirus cases in Lahore

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–NCC decides to impose lockdown on weekends, keep shop timings unchanged for rest of the week

–Nearly 3,000 Covid-19 cases surface across country in 24 hours, death toll increases by 60

–PM Imran says lockdown isn’t feasible, people would have to learn to live with the virus

LAHORE/ISLAMABAD: The Punjab Primary and Secondary Healthcare Department sent a summary to Chief Minister Usman Buzdar almost two weeks ago, revealing that there were an estimated 670,800 coronavirus cases in Lahore and that no residential area or workplace was disease-free in the provincial capital.

On the other hand, as Pakistan confirmed 60 more deaths from the disease during the past 24 hours, the National Coordination Committee (NCC) on Monday decided to impose a complete lockdown on weekends while keeping the shop timings unchanged for the rest of the week.

According to the National Command and Operation Center (NCOC), 2,964 new coronavirus cases surfaced during the past 24 hours, taking the nationwide tally to 72,460. According to the latest figures, 26,240 cases have so far been detected in Punjab, 28,245 in Sindh, 10,027 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), 4,393 in Balochistan, 2,589 in Islamabad, 711 in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), and 255 in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). 26,083 people have been recovered from the virus so far. Pakistan has so far conducted 561,136 coronavirus tests with 14,398 tests in past 24 hours.

The NCC’s decision is in direct contrast with the Punjab health department’s recommendation of enforcing a complete lockdown for at least four weeks since a smart lockdown would not be effective anymore as all areas of the city had already been affected by the disease.

The health department stated that asymptomatic cases became the “main source of infection and local transmission” in the provincial capital and “any subsequent decision of lifting, relaxing or doing away with lockdown measures should be taken after reviewing the results of smart sampling conducted with regular intervals till the final tapering down of the virus”.

The summary — signed by Primary and Secondary Healthcare Department Secretary Muhammad Usman and dated May 15 — listed the results of a “smart sampling project” to “detect and determine the spread of Covid-19 and to structure and guide [the department’s] response towards its containment”.

Under the exercise, randomised targeted sampling (RTS) and smart sampling (SS) were carried out; the former was to determine the prevalence of the disease in occupational sectors that remained functional during the lockdown, while the latter was to understand community spread.

After these exercises, the report said, it could be estimated that Lahore, which has a population of over 11 million, has around 670,800 coronavirus cases. But as of June 1, the entire Punjab province has officially reported just 26,240 infections and 497 fatalities.

Analysing the data from various hotspots including workplaces and residential areas, the summary noted “a worrisome picture of Covid-19 prevalence” in communities, with 5.18 per cent infection rate for RTS and 6.01 per cent for SS.

“This means that no workplace and residential area of any town is disease-free and, as such, Lahore exhibits an alarmingly similar transmission pattern,” it added.

Elaborating on the findings for the testing carried out in the provincial capital, the summary stated that six per cent of all those who were tested turned out positive for Covid-19, while some towns showed a positivity rate as high as 14.7 per cent.

“These cases being asymptomatic could not be reported to health facilities, but became the main source of infection and local transmission,” the report stated.

“The town wise breakdown shows a value of more than three per cent for all towns — except Wagha Town — and ranges between 2.11 per cent and 9.33 per cent,” it added.

The summary also stated that people over 50 years of age are the ones most affected by the respiratory illness, as is reflected in international literature and research.

It further stated that any decisions regarding lifting or enforcing lockdown measures can’t and shouldn’t be taken in isolation. “It should be necessarily articulated through larger consensus and based on evidence gathered through smart sampling and testing,” it added.

The summary further said that the sampling exercise was carried out with the technical assistance of a working group, consisting of a panel of experts, that was constituted on the directives of the provincial cabinet to provide an international perspective and input to determine Covid-19 prevalence.

LOCKDOWN INFEASIBLE:

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Imran Khan, while addressing a press conference after chairing the meeting of NCC, called to devise a future course of action with regards to lockdown imposed to curb the spread of Covid-19 pandemic.

“We imposed a lockdown when 26 coronavirus cases were detected in the country,” he said.

“I was very clear-minded that from the very first day since the virus outbreak that the situation Pakistan is very different from China and Europe and hence strict lockdown cannot be imposed here,” he maintained.

“People living in DHA and other upscale neigbourhoods see lockdown from different perspective from the people living in slum areas,” said the premier.

“I as a prime minister was looking through these two perspectives that we had to stop the spread of virus while considering the needs of the marginalised segment of the society,” he said. “This coronavirus is not going anywhere and we will have to live with it while striking a balance between poverty and lockdown.”

There will be dire consequences of returning to normal life without taking any preventive measures against the virus, said the prime minister.

PM Imran said people in India are dying due to lockdown and virus is still spreading in the neighbouring country. “We are planning to open the tourism sector but high-risk sectors will continue to remain closed,” he added.

Coronavirus pandemic has claimed more than 373,000 lives across the world so far, with over 6.2 million confirmed cases.

The United States is on top of the list with 106,194 deaths followed by the Britain 38,489 and Italy with 33,415 deaths.

More than 2.7 million people have recovered from the infection.



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